YukonFX Foreign Currency Trading

Mid-June Update

2009-06-09T21:50:00.000-07:00

As usual, I can’t seem to sit still when it comes to FOREX EAs. For my live account, I’ve removed the Neuro-Martingale Stochastic EA trading the USD/JPY. Due to the high risk associated with any Martingale type strategy, it’s only a matter of time before it bottoms out an account. What’s fueling my opinion? This past week the Neuro-Martingale Stochastic set-up trading the EUR/USD crashed its account. This was the second chance with the lowest possible settings. I believe it’s only a matter of time before we see the same outcome of the USD/JPY set-up.

Mega Droid has been trading on the demo account since May 12th. As of this writing, June 9, it’s up 26% with 9.4% of that in May. All this growth with no losing trades. Very impressive.

Winning Solutions has joined us in the FOREX venture. Before making a plunge and purchasing the EA I’ve opted to test the EA for awhile utilizing the Bronze Account, offered at their website. This will allow me to run their system and only pay a low monthly fee. Time will tell if it’s worth it.

TSD finally reached a draw down level of 65%. That was enough for me to decide that it wasn’t worth keeping.

A late addition to the basket of testing EAs is My OZ FX Squeeze v3.1 found at http://www.tradingsystemforex.com/expert-advisors-backtesting/711-ozfx-system-ea.html. After backtesting, I modified the code to trade as low as 0.01 lots instead of the hard coded 0.1 lots. This will allow a far lower starting equity with less risk.

Summer is here!

2009-05-28T11:50:00.000-07:00

Summer in the Yukon is definitely the best time of the year. The snow is finally gone and the sun is finally here. Bring on the summer events! Here is a snapshot of my Dad, Daughter and I getting ready for a lazy afternoon in the canoe. We endure the winter to get to the summer. This is Kusawa Lake, about a 45 minute drive from Whitehorse, Yukon.

Now for some Trading News. There have been a few changes to the current EAs being tested. The Neuro-Martingale on the USD/JPY is doing quite well. May has been a great month for this trading system. I'll be posting the month end numbers in a few days. The Neuro-Martingale on the EUR/USD has seen some good action this month as well. Again, the month end numbers will be ready in a few days.

I have deleted the demo account trading the VForce and Neuro-Martingale as it fell below 50% draw dawn. As for the lone VForce trading system, it is currently below the starting balance.

I had high hopes for the TSD EA from TSD Forex Forum. It was off to a great start skyrocketing almost 20% in the first few weeks. But the current account level is down almost 40% from starting balance. Quite disappointing.

I picked up another interesting EA to add to the testing. It’s from www.expertadvisorforex.com. The Your Lucky 2b EA is a free Automated Trading System available through the link at their website. No strings attached. This one too was off to a great start but has since fallen into the negative ROI zone.

On a better note, I took a plunge and paid for an EA. This doesn’t happen very often and even goes against my logical thought process. But I gave into a few hours of Internet research and back testing. At the end of it all, I put down my $97 and purchased the Megadroid EA. It's been on a demo account since the 12th of May so let’s see how it does.

I have so much confidence in the Megadroid EA (www.forex-megadroid.com) and Neuro-Martingale EA that I opened a live mini account of $200 at Interbank FX. Both of these trading systems are trading on the account at a reduced risk/equity ratio. Time will tell how well this combination does. So far the Megadroid EA seems to be very selective. Only managing 2-4 trades a week.

Changing of the gaurd

2009-05-07T08:55:00.000-07:00

It's been way too long since my last post. There have been some changes in the rankings of decent trading systems as well as some fall out. And we ahave a newbie to add to the rankings.

Firstly, the Neuro-Martingale Stoch set up on the EUR/USD mini account of $400. This set up was doing really well. Since March 6, 2009 almost 32% ROI. Along with another Neuro-Martingale Stoch set up on the EUR/USD standard account of $5100. Again this set up was doing realy well with 88% ROI since starting December 8, 2009.

Both of these set ups for the EUR/USD failed a week ago. This shouldn't be a surprise due to the nature of the Martingale beast. If the currency pair takes a hard swing in the opposite direction while the Martingale is activly taking trades (Indicator initiated) then there is the chance of bottoming out your account if the trend doesn't pause for correction. It's in the correction that the Martingale shines.

On a lighter side of the Neuro-Martingale Stoch, the USD/JPY set up is still pushing farward with a ROI of 5.5% since March 29, 2009 (5 weeks) and virtually no draw down on the account. I have since reset the Neuro-Martingale Stoch on the EUR/USD Mini account with a third of the original lot size.

VForce EA isn't doing so well. It was showing alot of promise for the first half of it's life on the demo account but at present it has given back all profits and then some. Of course with these developments the combo account (VForce and Neuro-Martingale Stoch) isn't doing so well and presently sits at a loss of over 50%.

On the up side I have begun testing on a little gem from the TSD Forex Forum called TSD EA. It simultaniously sets up trades on 11 currency pairs. Or you can edit the code for more or less pairs to your liking. This one just went live a few days ago and comes from a long line of testing and development, so I'm anticipating a long a prosperous life on the demo account.

Neuro-Matingale Stochastic

2009-03-30T08:09:00.000-07:00

So far through all the forward testing, only one trading system seems to be emerging as a clear winner. The Neuro-Martingale Stochastic Trading System. I like realistic scenarios. I've been farward testing on a $5400 demo account thus far. But in light of the economy and disposable cash (#1 trading rule: only trade what you can afford to lose) I'm now beginning to demo test on accounts starting with only $400.

IBFX Mini account requires a minimum of $250 initial deposit. If a trading system can prove itself working with only $400 then it's worth a go with real money. I think it's safe to say that for the greater majority of people looking to dabble in FOREX, $400 is a good working capital to begin with. Most of us won't hurt too much it we lose $400.

So onward $400 demo accounts!

Big Changes

2009-01-22T14:10:00.000-08:00

Hello Traders,

I've made a lot of changes to the current ongoing EAs in testing. In an effort to streamline and get rid of some obvious losers, I've deleted a few.

First off, YukonFX EA. Yes you read right. I deleted my very own baby. Nurtured in development for 6 months and backtested since 2000. It depended on average monthly movement and positive swap. Neither of which are a given in the emerging markets of the past 5 months. Due to overexposure (it was a grid system at heart) and low swap, I've made the tough decision and deleted it.

I had some difficulties working out position size in the Neuro Martingale Low rist settings. Even though it did very well in the backtests, in live trading it took positions almost ten times the size of it's higher risk big brother with high risk settings. Opposite of what ought to have happened. This prompted me to investigate further into the behavior of the two set files. The conclusion is there is only room for one Neuro Martingale in testing and it goes to a further refined low riskversion I like to tag "Endurance".Steady as she goes.

I've added a version of the Double Parabolic EA as well. It seemed to test far better in the long run for backtesting. This entire experience has shown me that backtesting is only good for a ball park estimate of system performance. Nothing beats a good'ol fashioned farward test on a live market to really get to know the EA.

In addition, I've added another EA to our bunch. The AlexCutBastem EA. Like God's Gift EA, it is very selective, but proved itself well in backtesting for the past two and a half years. Time will tell.

God's Gift revisisted

2009-01-11T20:34:00.000-08:00

This past week God's Gift took one really bad trade and lost almost 60% of it's account. This has prompted me to do more backtesting on a greater length of time and include a hard stoploss to avoid a 60% drop in equity in one trade.

So as of this week, the demo account has been reset to $5100 and the EA restarted with the new settings in pace.

Updated Website

2009-01-03T13:46:00.000-08:00

I've updated the website to reflect how the Trading Systems have done for the month of December of 2008. There is definatly some distinct favorites depending on the Risk to Reward Ratio one is willing to tolerate.

As well, I've added a variant of the Neuro-Martingale Stochastic. I've been working at squeezing out every thing I could from this little gem of an Expert Advisor for a two year backtest. I believe I've arrived at a pretty good setting. So it is now included in the Trading System lineup.

It occured to me that testing a basket of Trading Systems like this will reveal the higher risk and lower risk Systems with thier obvious benifits. One could tailor a FOREX portfolio based on these Trading Systems. If there is a high Risk Appetite then a larger portion of the overall portfolio could be dedicated to the higher risk Trading Systems.And likewise for the lower Risk Apetite inclined.

All the best in 2009 and may the best Expert Advisors be evident.

Farward Testing versus Backtesting

2008-12-18T17:48:00.000-08:00

The PROphet EA nailed a huge trade this week. For comparison I ran the same week on the backtester in MT4. To my surprise, the backtester didn't place any trades this week so far even though the EA actually did place atrade on a farward testing Demo Account. No matter how much you backtest, 90% is the most accuracy available. And nothing beats a farward test on a live account with real money.

Ready Set Fire!

2008-12-14T21:28:00.000-08:00

So it's all set then. I finally figured out the "Publishing" feature within MT4. The platform has the ability to export live statements in html format via FTP. So the trick was to find a free webhosting site that allowed FTP imports. I finally found one that worked at 50g.com.

Now, the Virtual Server is set to export statements of the live demo accounts. All EA's have been running since December 7th of 2008 and they all started with $5100. Lets see how it goes. So far my favorite is Neuro-Martingale-Stochastic. It's up $160 (3.1%) in the past week and has managed to hold on to its profits.

A New Direction

2008-12-10T16:36:00.000-08:00

I've determined a new course of action to take. The YukonFX Trading System did not fair very well during the tumultuous days of September and October. I successfully managed to wipe out my entire live account of $4200 USD. Since then I have backtested various settings within the Trading System. The only setting that are succsesful are so tone back that a normal year of market conditions is hardly profitable. I suppose that is inherent of the risk we run while trading on the Foreign Exchange.

So, I've been searching far and wide for profitable and stable EA for the MT4 platform. There are a ton of commercial systems availible and even more publicly availible on forums. In an effort to sort through the garabage of useless EAs and find the gems I've been backtesting and optimizing the one I've deemed viable.

Now, the farward testing begins.

Stay posted for when I start to publish more info on the EAs I've found that are totally free and profitable.

May Trading Results

2008-06-01T21:39:00.000-07:00

For the month of May my trading account saw a 9% increase. I was strickly running the YukonFX trading system for this month. Trading Forex has never been so easy! It's completely automated and runs all by itself. I had it set for medium risk and just checked it every few days to see what the market was doing. I didn't have to pay attention to fundementals or technical indicators. No babysitting the computer either. It was great!

I've been studying, developing, testing and more studying for almost a full two years. Sometimes up to 4 hours a day. You can never look at too many charts. Now that a computer is doing all the trading for me I find it very liberating. I still look at charts and I still study, but not nearly as much as I used too. I've got alot more spare time on my hands now.

EUR/USD vs EUR/GBP Trading Idea

2008-05-27T14:17:00.000-07:00

Here's a Trading Idea for ya. Utilizing the correlation between EUR/USD and EUR/GBP take opposing trades in the two pairs so you're still swap positive.

Example; 1.5 standard lots per every $10k of account balance. So 1.5 lot buy on the EUR/USD and a 1.5 lot sell on the EUR/GBP (assuming a $10k account balance). At a combined swap of $21 a day that's $630 a month on a $10k account. 6.3% just for holding the positions.

So on a daily basis the pairs move together 66.9% of the time. If there are equal and opposing positions then 37.1% of the time the combined positions will be in profit or loss. Wait out the loss at a holding rate of 6.3% a month and take profit when you reach 2%-5% of your original account balance.

Sound like it's time for a demo farward test. Good Pip Hunting.

My Story

2008-05-25T13:44:00.000-07:00

Several years ago I began studying the Foreign Exchange Spot Market as a way of making money for my family and others. I started with the VT (Visual Trader) Platform because it’s programmable and I could test my ideas on historical market data. I worked with the VT Platform and programmed various trading strategy ideas for about a year. Unfortunately, my progress was stifled due to the inherent limitations of this platform.

During the summer of 2007 I came across a trading strategy that had a lot of potential and I wanted to test it. But it would require a different Trading Platform with more programmability and account features than VT. I found the MT (Meta Trader) Platform but realized the application used a different programming language that I was not familiar with.

I hired a great programmer over the Internet who had experience trading the Forex, and together we developed the Trading Strategy that I have been using live since November of 2007. It runs automatically on a dedicated, battery backed server in the United States and I check it once a day, via remote desktop, to look at the market.

The MT platform programmability has allowed us to test this strategy as far back as 2000. In doing so we have optimized the system for the best results during every kind of market condition. We are continually striving to make the YukonFX Trading System even better by testing new and different ideas to integrate with it.

Currently, the Trading System activates itself by using various technical indicators and only takes trades in a swap positive direction so daily interest is always accumulating. It's designed to function with a draw down that eventually earns itself into a profit.

At this point in time, it’s optimized for use on the EUR/JPY currency pair and it’s been designed to increase lot size as the account grows thereby effectively compounding performance. Even with flat market conditions this Trading System still profits from small fluctuations in price.

This past week I saw my account grow by 2.58%! Since November of 2007 I've averaged 2.61% a week. Let's see what this trading week has in store for us.

A new day is dawning

2008-05-25T09:41:00.000-07:00

A new day and a brand new blog. The purpose of this blog is to write about my experiences with the YukonFX Trading System and life in the Yukon.